Weather radar composite image from the major derecho event yesterday.

Millions are without power in the middle of a massive heat wave.

You can watch a time-lapse of the 900+ storm reports from the derecho yesterday.

To add insult to injury, conditions are favorable for a second significant wind event today.

Weather radar composite image from the major derecho event yesterday.

Millions are without power in the middle of a massive heat wave.

You can watch a time-lapse of the 900+ storm reports from the derecho yesterday.

To add insult to injury, conditions are favorable for a second significant wind event today.

The current tornado outlook.

There’s a 10% tornado chance today for portions of:

North Dakota
South Dakota
Minnesota
Significant hail (2” or larger) is also possible for the same general area today.

The current tornado outlook.

There’s a 10% tornado chance today for portions of:

  • North Dakota
  • South Dakota
  • Minnesota

Significant hail (2” or larger) is also possible for the same general area today.

Tornado chance as high as 5% today.

States that are in the 5% risk area are:

Nebraska
Iowa
Missouri
Kansas
Oklahoma
More details

Tornado chance as high as 5% today.

States that are in the 5% risk area are:

  • Nebraska
  • Iowa
  • Missouri
  • Kansas
  • Oklahoma

More details

Winds today are the biggest severe thunderstorm threat.

The highest risk areas are:

Montana
Idaho
Washington
Oregon
Montana also has the potential for significant wind (the black hatched area on the map) which is defined as 75 mph and greater (severe wind is 58 mph and greater).

Montana is also where a 5% tornado chance is today, with parts of the Pacific Northwest having a 2% tornado risk today.

Winds today are the biggest severe thunderstorm threat.

The highest risk areas are:

  • Montana
  • Idaho
  • Washington
  • Oregon

Montana also has the potential for significant wind (the black hatched area on the map) which is defined as 75 mph and greater (severe wind is 58 mph and greater).

Montana is also where a 5% tornado chance is today, with parts of the Pacific Northwest having a 2% tornado risk today.

The Storm Prediction Center has further upgraded the tornado threat for:

Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Virginia
Maryland
The area now includes a significant tornado area. What does this mean? Significant tornadoes are defined as EF2 and greater on a scale from EF0 to EF5.

Relevant bits from the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook:


...VA/MD/SRN AND SERN PA...
THE 1630Z SCENARIO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES FORMING
ALONG A QLCS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK.  DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED ON THE N/NE BY A
WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD.  EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 FROM
NRN VA INTO NRN MD/SERN PA AND NRN DE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS HAVE BEEN DETECTED
THUS FAR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN VA INTO NRN MD.  GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA HAS BEEN ADDED.

The Storm Prediction Center has further upgraded the tornado threat for:

  • Pennsylvania
  • West Virginia
  • Virginia
  • Maryland

The area now includes a significant tornado area. What does this mean? Significant tornadoes are defined as EF2 and greater on a scale from EF0 to EF5.

Relevant bits from the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook:

...VA/MD/SRN AND SERN PA...
THE 1630Z SCENARIO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES FORMING
ALONG A QLCS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINS ON TRACK.  DISCRETE STORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED ON THE N/NE BY A
WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD.  EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 FROM
NRN VA INTO NRN MD/SERN PA AND NRN DE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS HAVE BEEN DETECTED
THUS FAR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN VA INTO NRN MD.  GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA HAS BEEN ADDED.
15% tornado chance today for PA/WV/VA/MD.

As I write this, there are tornado warnings in Maryland, Virginia, and Florida.

Next outlook will probably be issued in the next 30 minutes or so.

15% tornado chance today for PA/WV/VA/MD.

As I write this, there are tornado warnings in Maryland, Virginia, and Florida.

Next outlook will probably be issued in the next 30 minutes or so.

Oklahoma is at the center of a 10% tornado chance today.

They’re also the target for a significant wind chance (winds greater than 75 mph), and significant hail chance (hail larger than 2”).

Other states at risk of damaging winds and hail today are:

Texas
Arkansas
Missouri
Kansas
Nebraska

Oklahoma is at the center of a 10% tornado chance today.

They’re also the target for a significant wind chance (winds greater than 75 mph), and significant hail chance (hail larger than 2”).

Other states at risk of damaging winds and hail today are:

  • Texas
  • Arkansas
  • Missouri
  • Kansas
  • Nebraska

Covered in today’s severe weather outlook video:

  • TD Beryl
  • 45% damaging wind threat for New York, Vermont, and Pennsylvania
  • Significant hail threat for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
  • 5% tornado threat for several locations

The question of the day:

what is the dumber name for a hurricane site? cyclocane or stormvortex

I swear every single hurricane related name is taken. Like I thought I was being clever with “Hurricane Whisperer”. Nope.

Parts of New York, Pennsylvania, and Vermont are expected to get a moderate risk as of the next Storm Prediction Center outlook due to the threat of damaging winds.

Most likely this will mean a 45% chance of damaging winds for the area shown on the graphic, which translates into:


  a nearly 1 in 2 chance that any location in the outlook area, or a location within 25 miles of it, will see damaging winds (58 mph or greater)


From the Storm Prediction Center:


SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DMGG WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.

Parts of New York, Pennsylvania, and Vermont are expected to get a moderate risk as of the next Storm Prediction Center outlook due to the threat of damaging winds.

Most likely this will mean a 45% chance of damaging winds for the area shown on the graphic, which translates into:

a nearly 1 in 2 chance that any location in the outlook area, or a location within 25 miles of it, will see damaging winds (58 mph or greater)

From the Storm Prediction Center:

SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DMGG WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
New York, Vermont, and Pennsylvania are going to be in a severe thunderstorm watch soon.


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...POSSIBLY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT ONCE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY.

New York, Vermont, and Pennsylvania are going to be in a severe thunderstorm watch soon.

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...POSSIBLY IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT ONCE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY.